2019 General Elections: A predictable Outcome.

April 07, 2019
2019 General Elections, is an exciting yet predictable election for the country and it is amusing to observe for the reasons of ideology and Modi vs. All narrative.

Ideological clash:

In India, there exist two significant ideologies, the right-nationalist ideology, and the left ideology. The BJP is inalienably a center-right political party and its parent organization the RSS falling within the level of the far-right ideology. Indian National Congress, provides for socialist-left thinking ideology, providing comprehensive programmes for the poor and the underprivileged.

Either end of the spectrum falls within the purview of populism, helping promote imagery over performance. Modi's policies have increasingly focussed on recasting BJP's image as a pro-farmer and pro-poor party; the announcement of the farmer basic income is an essential feat to such extent. The clash between the ideologies of the two critical national parties seems to have boiled down to a fight for Modi and just himself only. Also, Gatbandhan politics has resulted in the dilution of ideological clashes to merely a referendum on people's support for the incumbent Prime Minister. This dilution is strictly vital within the context of general elections, mainly because it is observably the first ever political clash in India without a significant battle of ideologies. The Congress party has participated in rallies with right-wing politicos questioning the framework of the party's liberal stand and ideological inclination, helping push BJP retain its 'true nationalist' party stand. 

The Modi Narrative:

Pulwama terror attack was one of the deadliest attacks against the Indian army from Pakistan based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammad, an organisation working ardently for the liberation of Kashmir and infamous for its involvement in the 2008 Mumbai terror attack. The Modi-led NDA government provided the Army a free-hand to conduct strikes across the border in a 'non-war' simulation for the first time in India's history. The fellow citizens looked up for a 'symbolic chowkidar', and they got one, the strikes for a common-man proved to be the revenge badly deserved. Eventually trickling into Modi's political discourse of leading him to the righteous role of a chowkidari that protects his counterparts.

 Modi showed courage when the country was in pain ,and the opposition simply walked into the political trap, wherein they were caught in the bigotry of questioning military action. The strikes had shifted the focus of politics from economy, job-growth, farmer distress(opposition allegations) to counter-terrorism, national security and vision. Recent allegations by SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav hitching conspiracy in the Pulwama attack on Modi's agenda to win elections further strengthens him to deeply upset and criticize the opposition. The 2019 elections is seeing the setting up of the Modi narrative and people's acceptance of him as the nation's master. His shift from peace to befitting military reply in the five years has seemed to resonate well along with the Indian voter and might just do wonders for the party in the booth.

The 2019-Verdict:

  Most political pundits and polls have securely given the BJP a second term but with no clear single majority. The interesting point of convolution being the state of Uttar Pradesh which witnessed the coming together of the Samaj Parties (BSP and SP) combinedly taking on the BJP. But, the crowds in BJP rallies witnessed in West Bengal and Odisha provide an alternative understanding of the possible electoral outcome. Satisfaction in the NDA's performance has improved in 2019 and the incumbency factor is being subtly alleviated from the narrative-building process. If the BJP is comfortable in getting the lead seats in the states of Bengal and Odisha, their losses in the Hindi heartland can be curtailed and eventual victory is very much possible.

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